You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.īecause the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2018 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Update: Baltimore has not been in the playoff since 2014, and so the results have been amended. The formulas place a substantial penalty on the lack of playoff experience, and so does not favor Chicago, the Chargers, or the Colts. They like Baltimore, but Baltimore, which will lose home field after the first round, is unlikely to be favored after that point. The playoff formulas like New Orleans and Kansas City. Methodology of this work is described in depth here.
It’s a new playoff season, and another time to try our new playoff formulas.
